AGP Executive Report

Trade & Tech Supply Chains: The U.S. trade deficit widened to $77.6B in May as imports of semiconductors and AI-related components rose, with Taiwan overtaking China as a top source. Monetary Policy Watch: Japan’s wholesale inflation jumped to a 3+ year high, keeping pressure on the BOJ to consider further rate hikes, while Malaysia’s central bank said the OPR at 2.75% still fits its growth and inflation path. FDI Snapshot: UNCTAD reports global foreign direct investment rose 6% to $1.6T in 2025, but the rebound is uneven, with developing economies lagging. Semiconductors & Investment: U.S. officials renewed pressure on Samsung and SK hynix to expand chip production in the U.S., following Micron’s $250B+ plan. Dealmaking & Regulation: The Clippers-Raptors Kawhi Leonard trade is on hold pending an NBA salary-cap investigation; in Europe, Apollo’s surprise £5.7B bid for easyJet tops Castlelake’s offer. Business Climate & Growth: Essex County Council unveiled a jobs-and-investment programme, while the UK’s mission-led businesses census found 150,000+ such firms growing faster than the wider market. Regional Trade Links: Malaysia and Thailand are working through technical rules for sea bass and prawn trade, and Thailand is adding missing road links to speed cross-border movement.

NBA Salary-Cap Scrutiny: The Raptors have put the Kawhi Leonard trade on hold pending the NBA’s investigation into whether the Clippers used an Aspiration endorsement deal to skirt salary-cap rules, with Toronto saying it won’t assume potential contract penalty risk. Semiconductors & Jobs: Micron kicked off major construction at its Central New York campus, with the company planning up to $3B in U.S. supply-chain investment and citing AI-driven demand for memory and storage. Fed Policy Overhaul: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh named business and academic leaders to five task forces reviewing the Fed’s monetary policy “means and methods,” including inflation frameworks and data. Corporate Real Estate: American Express began construction on its new 2 World Trade Center global headquarters, targeting a 2031 completion and up to 10,000 employees. Trade & Tariffs: A look at what new U.S. tariffs could mean for US-Brazil trade as Section 301 proposals take shape. Malaysia Macro Outlook: IMF forecasts Malaysia growth at 4.7% in 2026, supporting expectations for the OPR to stay at 2.75%.

Middle East & Inflation: US-Iran strikes resumed for a second day over the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil higher and reviving fears of renewed global inflation as markets react to the ceasefire unraveling. Central Banking: Fed minutes under new chair Kevin Warsh show deep splits on the inflation path, with some officials expecting rates to stay near 3.6% while others see higher by year-end, and concerns that AI buildout could keep prices elevated. Emerging-Market Outlook: ADB cut Pakistan’s FY2027 growth forecast to 3.7% and lifted inflation projections, citing energy costs, weaker remittances, and Middle East spillovers; Bangladesh’s outlook also faces elevated inflation risk. Trade & Tech: China and the Netherlands met in Beijing to manage semiconductor tensions, while Egypt urged a coordinated investment body to help Egyptian firms scale across Africa. Digital Infrastructure & Investment: Malaysia pushed ahead with new China routes and foreign bond inflows; the Philippines signaled support for AWS’s proposed $5bn digital infrastructure plan; Gujarat launched a data centre policy to attract AI and hyperscale investment. Business & Governance: North Carolina approved major cybersecurity and data modernization funding, and Malaysia clarified commercial registration vs licensing to speed up business setup.

Trade & Markets: Trump renewed threats to cut off all U.S. trade with Spain at the NATO summit, rattling risk appetite as oil jumped and investors again priced higher-for-longer inflation risk. Inflation Watch: A Middle East flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices higher, dragging European shares and reviving fears of another oil-and-gas shock. M&A & Regulation: Virginia’s Lt. Gov. Ghazala Hashmi urged regulators to slow and scrutinize the Dominion–NextEra merger, warning about ratepayer impacts as the deal would create the largest U.S. utility. Banking & Deals: UniCredit raised its Commerzbank stake to 47.6%, moving toward effective control, while Santander overhauled its APAC business. Energy Expansion: Adnoc Distribution agreed to buy Shell’s South Africa downstream business in a ~$1bn deal, expanding its retail footprint by about 55%. Digital Infrastructure: Philippines President Marcos backed AWS’s plan for $5bn+ in digital infrastructure over 15 years, with a possible AWS Region. Local Business Climate: New York City repealed a security-gate visibility law after small-business backlash, and Nebraska touted strong economic momentum rankings. Investment & Jobs: Maryland announced a $1.23m workforce upskilling program, while Pennsylvania secured a Mitsubishi Chemical Advanced Materials expansion in Berks County.

US-Iran Energy Shock: The US reinstated sanctions on Iran’s oil trade by revoking a short-lived waiver, tightening limits on new purchases and loading after July 17 as Strait of Hormuz attacks keep crude prices elevated. Trade Tensions: At a NATO summit, Trump ordered Treasury to cut off all US trade with Spain, escalating pressure over defense spending and access issues. Global Trade Infrastructure: Gulftainer unveiled a $2bn plan to become a connected trade-infrastructure platform, boosting Khorfakkan Port capacity to 5m TEUs and expanding inland logistics. Capital Markets & Crypto: The Philippine Stock Exchange pushed back on the regulator’s move to allow crypto trading in a sandbox, warning it could siphon retail money from equities. Finance & Trust in AI: Malaysia’s banking leaders urged “trusted” AI rollout with stronger governance and resilience as Open Finance and asset tokenisation pilots move forward. EV Charging Push: Malaysia said it’s streamlining EV ecosystem incentives, including building power substations and supporting charging operators. WTO Accession: Ethiopia signed a bilateral market access protocol with Thailand at the WTO, marking another step toward full membership. Business & Investment: Record Financial Group launched “Record Amanah,” a Sharia-compliant private markets platform for institutional investors.

Energy Security & Supply Chains: Malaysia says crude oil and fuel supplies are stable for July–Dec 2026 despite Strait of Hormuz disruptions, citing diversified imports, biodiesel output, and long-term supply deals as it monitors global plastic raw-material shocks. Trade & Investment Diplomacy: Jordan and the UK pledged to deepen trade and investment after exports to the UK jumped 88% in early 2026, while Türkiye launched free-trade talks with Canada and sought deeper ties with NATO allies. Industrial Policy vs Private Investment: U.S. lawmakers Murray and Kaptur urged OMB to rescind a proposed DOE grants rule they say would politicize funding and chill private investment. Corporate Deals & Restructuring: Resmed agreed to sell its MatrixCare business to Frazier Healthcare Partners, and Lantronix will buy Vecima’s industrial IoT unit to boost recurring revenue. M&A/Capital Markets: Exascale Labs and a SPAC set an Aug. 29 shareholder vote for their merger; NewHold and newcleo filed an SEC F-4 for a nuclear AMR business combination. Local Business & Jobs: Beloit, Wisconsin approved full consolidation of town fire/EMS with the city; Memphis is accepting applications for a no-cost scaling program for growth-stage owners. Investor Alerts: New class-action filings were announced for ChampionX, Photronics, Phreesia, and ADMA Biologics, with lead-plaintiff deadlines in July/August.

Energy & Infrastructure Shock: Cuba suffered a nationwide blackout as fuel reserves dwindle and the grid deteriorates, with transport and surgeries disrupted. Inflation Watch: Estonia reported June CPI up 2.3% year-on-year, the slowest since April 2021, while the euro zone outlook remains “fragile” as ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta warned growth and inflation risks are still mixed. Startup & Capital Flows: Woori Financial Group unveiled a 7 trillion won ($4.5bn) roadmap to fund startups across their life cycle, and Korea Investment Corp opened a Tokyo office to expand Asia-Pacific investing. M&A & Market Regulation: Qatar’s QFMA received five acquisition/merger applications worth QR1.322bn in 2025; in the UK, Databarracks bought Acumen to expand business resilience services. Trade & Geopolitics: China and Japan gave conflicting accounts of a Senkaku Islands coast-guard confrontation, underscoring ongoing maritime risk. Business Climate Signals: NFIB’s June report showed small-business job openings largely flat, with hiring plans steady but qualified-worker shortages persisting. Corporate Moves: RENK plans to buy UK’s David Brown Defence to expand naval propulsion, while GTCR agreed to sell Corza Medical’s Biosurgery unit to EQT.

Carbon Finance: Indonesia’s Carbon Economic Value (NEK) push targets up to $5.8B in green investment and cuts an estimated 570M tonnes of CO2e, with the SERUK carbon unit registration system due July 9. Trade Policy: U.S. textile, apparel and retail groups ask the Trump administration to adopt a new textile trade incentive tied to reshoring and Western Hemisphere supply-chain stability, including tariff credits for U.S. purchases. Energy & Inflation: India’s PM Modi inaugurates the Rajasthan Refinery at Balotra, framing it as a response to the West Asia energy shock and a boost to refining and jobs. M&A/Healthcare: Vertex to buy Crinetics for about $10B to expand rare-disease revenue, including Palsonify and late-stage atumelnant. Crypto Finance: Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold 3,558 BTC for about $216M to fund preferred-stock dividend obligations, despite its “never sell” brand. Sports Business (Major Deal): The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade becomes official: Milwaukee sends Giannis and Bobby Portis to Miami for Tyler Herro, prospects, and multiple picks. Corporate Moves: Wintrust to buy Northern Trust’s guardianship services business (about $1.2B AUM).

Media & Deals: Sky has agreed to buy ITV’s media and entertainment business for up to £1.6bn, with ITV Studios staying independent; the deal also includes long-term content supply and is awaiting regulatory approval. AI & Semiconductors: South Korea plans a “Future Response Fund” to park excess chip tax windfalls for long-term investment, as part of a broader $880bn AI and semiconductor push. Venture & Startups: UK startups raised $17bn in H1 2026, driven by record AI funding and renewed late-stage momentum. Enterprise Tech Costs: Microsoft 365 renewals are getting pricier from July 1, 2026, as higher tiers reflect added AI and security features. Property & Capital Markets: Arada launched Arada Capital, targeting $5bn in assets over four years to route institutional money into Gulf property opportunities. Energy Security: Russia’s fuel supply network faces added strain as Ukrainian drone strikes hit refineries and export infrastructure. Trade & Digital Inclusion: Indonesia says online business matching for MSMEs generated about $107m in transactions in Jan–Apr, supported by trade reps abroad. Inflation Watch: Armenia reported 5.1% year-on-year inflation in June, with 0.5% deflation month-on-month.

Inflation Watch (Philippines): Private economists expect June inflation to cool to about 6.5%–6.7% from 6.8%, helped by cheaper oil and food, but minimum-wage hikes and weather risks keep the central bank on a hawkish track. Market Pulse (Bangladesh): Dhaka’s DSE rose about 44 points as investor confidence improved, with turnover up to Taka 15.3bn and travel/leisure among the top gainers. Crypto & Corporate Treasury: K Wave’s shift away from Bitcoin highlights how corporate treasury strategies get harder when debt and equity-market pressure rise. Middle East Trade: Iran–Qatar maritime shipping resumed after a five-month pause, signaling gradual normalization even as Gulf transit politics remain tense. Dealmaking (UK): easyJet said it’s minded to accept a £5.5bn takeover offer from Castlelake, moving the airline toward going private. Energy & Food Security: A warning grows over fast-tracked renewables that convert farmland and forests, arguing “green” buildouts can undermine food security and flood risk. Local Business & Jobs (US/UK): South DeKalb’s development push follows a grocery closure, while London Southend Airport warns business rates and National Insurance hikes are hurting investment.

Philippines-Canada Deal: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. says his Canada visit unlocked $2.5B in investment commitments across mining, critical minerals, energy, services and IT-BPM, with a strategic partnership and a Canada-Philippines free-trade push in the works. AI & Markets: Microsoft is creating Microsoft Frontier Co to help large enterprises deploy customised AI, while Jefferies warns the AI investment cycle may end as returns disappoint and capital risks “malinvestment.” Semiconductors & Industrial Scale-Up: India’s CG Power says it has started shipping chips from its Sanand facility and targets 16 million chips a day after a second plant ramps up. Banking: Axis Bank reported strong Q1 momentum with deposits up to ₹13.73 lakh crore. Trade Policy Watch: India-UK CETA rules were notified for July 15 entry, and New Zealand’s business lobby backs plans for new trade talks with seven markets. Pensions: Nigeria’s PenCom extended regulatory forbearance for PFAs to broaden eligible investments for 24 months. DOJ & Adani: US DOJ defended dropping bribery charges against Gautam Adani, arguing the case was improperly brought and faced major hurdles.

US Infrastructure Push: A new Associated General Contractors poll finds strong bipartisan support for a new federal highway, bridge and transit funding bill before Sept. 30, with 78% backing action and 80% wanting current investment maintained or increased. South Asia Trade Reset: Pakistan and Türkiye reaffirm a $5B bilateral trade target and expand cooperation on energy, minerals, IT and special economic zones after high-level talks in Istanbul. Crypto Market Fallout: Data shows Trump’s TRUMP memecoin generated a $636M payout for him while buyers lost about $3.81B in total paper losses, highlighting how token mechanics can shift risk to retail. Emerging Markets Debt Call: Goldman Sachs flags emerging market debt as a standout Q3 opportunity, citing higher yields and diversification benefits amid AI-driven portfolio concentration. Middle East Supply Chain Risk: BASF says Iran-war tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have so far hit it mainly indirectly, but demand and pricing could worsen if restrictions persist. Banking Results: HDFC Bank reports double-digit Q1 growth in deposits and advances, even as governance scrutiny continues. Meta/WhatsApp Business Change: WhatsApp Business Platform is moving business customer identity to BSUIDs, forcing backend updates by a June 2026 deadline. Cost-of-Living Pressure: Moody’s warns the affordability crisis remains structural despite improving headline indicators, with strain concentrated among lower- and middle-income households.

Semiconductors & Jobs: Infineon commissioned its €5bn Smart Power Fab in Dresden, doubling output and creating about 1,000 direct jobs, with AI and digital twins speeding ramp-up. Bilateral Investment: India–Israel’s Bilateral Investment Agreement took effect July 4, aiming to boost cross-border investment with investor protection and dispute rules. Trade & Exports: India and Mali launched a two-day India–Mali Forum to promote exports and investment, with bilateral trade topping $326m in FY2025–26. Energy & Inflation Watch: QNB expects a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh as US inflation stays above target, with markets pricing further hikes. Nigeria Power Crunch: Freight forwarders warn Nigeria’s electricity crisis is disrupting port operations and raising costs, urging visible power-sector reforms. Finance & Markets: Bitcoin rebounded to near $62,000 as investors weigh inflation, Middle East risks, and ETF flows. Corporate Governance: Investor revolt at Ocado targets chairman Adam Warby over succession plans involving CEO Tim Steiner. Infrastructure Politics: A Vermont AGC-backed poll finds strong public support for a new US federal roads and transit funding bill before Sept. 30.

AI Investment Cycle: BlackRock flags AI capex as still accelerating, but says power and energy are the binding constraint that will shape where investors can actually deploy capital. Energy Markets: India’s IEX power trading volumes rose 15.9% YoY to 37,534 MU in Q1 as heatwaves boosted demand, while day-ahead and real-time prices climbed. Trade Policy: The U.S. is holding July 7-9 hearings on forced-labour import rules under Section 301, with India set to testify July 8 and argue its legal system already blocks forced labour. Regional Trade Push: Tanzania and Mozambique urged faster AfCFTA rollout at the Dar es Salaam trade fair, stressing transport, digital links, energy and ports—not just agreements. Corporate Governance: Malaysia’s securities regulator consults on strengthening corporate governance, including tighter oversight of company secretaries and a shareholder litigation fund. M&A/Mining: Mining investors see a valuation “reset” as majors chase junior pipelines amid commodity support from the AI buildout. Business & Finance: Kyrgyzstan launched the Tamchy Special Financial Investment Territory with a 0% tax regime for 49 years to attract global firms. Food Security: Nigeria’s postharvest engineering push targets food losses and storage gaps to improve availability.

North America Trade: The US declined to renew USMCA in its current form, citing trade deficits with Canada and Mexico and triggering an annual review that keeps the pact active while talks continue toward a revised deal. Inflation Watch: South Korea’s June inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year, with fuel costs and a weaker won keeping pressure on the Bank of Korea; Turkey’s June inflation eased to about 32.1% but housing and education costs stayed hot. Food Prices: India’s monsoon shortfall is expected to lift food inflation to around 6% in FY27, with CPI projected near 5% as rainfall deficits hit crops. Business & Investment Policy: Kazakhstan’s Prosecutor General’s office launched an expert council on investor protection, aiming to strengthen trust between state and business; Zambia is nearing the final stage of an OECD investment policy review to attract jobs and manufacturing investment. Corporate Moves: Hormel agreed to sell its Brazil Ceratti business to Zanchetta Alimentos; Cooke agreed to buy Mowi’s eastern Canada salmon-farming operations for US$158.1m. Tech & Skills: NIIT launched an Enterprise Tech business integrating StackRoute and RPS Consulting to build AI and digital talent for enterprises. Local Growth: Papua New Guinea and Fiji formed a business council focused on small-business market access and jobs. Sports Business: Jaylen Brown said he’s “still processing” his shock trade from the Celtics to the 76ers, underscoring how quickly big-league deals reshape business narratives and fan economics.

SEC Oversight: Trade groups backed the SEC’s proposed overhaul of the Consolidated Audit Trail, arguing for a new funding model and stronger privacy protections as the agency weighs next steps after a June 22 comment deadline. M&A Watch: Gold Resource Corp’s shareholders approved its merger with Goldgroup, with closing expected around July 17 after a share consolidation. Investment Execution: The U.S. Commerce Department named Andrew Silberstein to lead the Investment Accelerator, tasked with delivering major partner commitments tied to semiconductors, energy and critical minerals. Trade Diplomacy: China and the EU agreed to keep meeting under a trade-and-investment consultation mechanism this autumn, with AI and the green transition on the agenda. Regional Trade Economics: Malaysia reported January–May 2026 trade growth, saying a stronger ringgit improved export competitiveness and helped lift the surplus. Small Business Hiring: NFIB said job openings rose in June, but many owners still can’t find qualified workers. Energy & Mobility for Development: AfDB and IOM pushed the idea that safe, orderly migration supports regional integration and development. Crypto Investor Alerts: Rosen Law Firm urged FLOW investors to contact it about potential securities claims.