AGP Executive Report

USMCA Talks: The U.S. agreed to a July 1 trilateral meeting with Canada and Mexico to restart review of the trade pact, easing fears of a missed renewal deadline. Energy & Inflation Shock: Indonesia unveiled a $1.48bn 2H stimulus to counter an energy crisis and currency slump, while the Philippines sought a $1.5bn ADB loan for similar energy-crisis relief. Middle East Trade Strain: Global fertiliser trade fell 30% in early 2026 as the Middle East conflict disrupts shipping and tightens supplies, with Strait of Hormuz closures a key driver. Cross-border Security: U.S. CBP seized over $10.1m in methamphetamine at the World Trade Bridge, underscoring tighter cargo scrutiny. M&A & Defense Space: Canada’s MDA Space agreed to buy Blue Canyon Technologies for $620m to expand U.S. defense and satellite capabilities. Retail Restructuring: Toys “R” Us Canada won court approval to sell parts of its business to three buyers, aiming to reduce debt after creditor protection. Bilateral Investment Push: Bangladesh is courting Malaysian investment and eyeing free trade agreements, while Iraq and Turkey discussed expanded economic ties and oil export logistics. Inflation Watch: Kuwait reported May CPI up 2.49% y/y, with food, transport, and health among the biggest contributors.

US-India Trade Talks: US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer heads to New Delhi for multiple meetings with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal as both sides push to wrap up a bilateral trade agreement, with tariff issues still the sticking point. China FDI Push: China rolled out a plan to stabilize and optimize foreign investment, including streamlining cross-border M&A and data-flow rules and allowing qualified foreign firms to list domestically. Middle East Trade Recovery: The UAE is reopening ports to Iranian vessels, easing supply-chain disruption after the Iran-Israel conflict; regional trade corridors are restarting gradually. AirAsia X Cost/Capacity Shift: AirAsia X says it will gradually lower fares and restore capacity as jet fuel prices fall, after a RM150m March loss tied to the fuel spike. Energy & Investment: Japan is targeting about $2.3tn in public-private investment by 2040 across strategic sectors, while Italy is emerging as a top battery storage destination thanks to bankable capacity-market rules. Business & Jobs: Kurdistan’s tourism push has created 20,000+ jobs, and Straive is buying NextGen Invent to scale AI operationalization services.

Trade Facilitation Push (Bangladesh): Bangladesh’s Commerce Minister says a centralized online one-stop investment service is being built to cut licensing and approval delays, with provisional licences and joint inspections to avoid repeated visits; the broader plan includes a digital platform for approvals and services. Tax & Housing Risk (Bangladesh): REHAB warns a proposed 15% flat tax from July 1 could unsettle joint development deals, raising uncertainty, disputes, and affordability pressures. Inflation Watch (US): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show faster PCE inflation, keeping rate-hike pressure on the table as investors parse Fed messaging under new chair Kevin Warsh. Monetary Tightening (South Africa): SARB governor Kganyago flags rising inflation expectations and says policymakers must act to pull inflation back toward the 3% target. Market Oversight (Bangladesh): Dhaka Stock Exchange resumes real-time trading halts after unusual price moves, aiming to protect investors. US Trade Action (Germany): The US launches a Section 301 probe into Germany’s drug pricing, raising the risk of tariffs. Geopolitics & Energy: Strait of Hormuz disruption fears deepen as Iran says it has closed the waterway amid renewed regional tensions. Investor/Legal Alerts: New class-action deadlines and updates continue for Roblox and other public companies, keeping securities litigation on investors’ radar.

Energy Finance: Malaysia’s Tenaga Nasional (TNB) drew massive demand for RM2.5bn in 2026 sukuk for solar (RM1bn) and hydro (RM1.5bn), both oversubscribed fivefold, underscoring appetite for bankable renewables. Energy Security & Trade: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim backed new Petronas-Turkmenistan agreements and said Russia assurances support long-term oil, gas and diesel supply, while BRICS International Malaysia praised the visits for strengthening strategic partnerships. Diplomacy-to-Deals: Qatar and Thailand chambers pushed private-sector investment links after 2025 trade hit about QR12.4bn; Germany’s Arab-German Business Forum in Berlin also highlighted public-private partnership opportunities. Inflation Watch: Jordan kept inflation well below the global average from 2021-2025, aided by subsidies and Central Bank policy during global shocks. Cyber Risk: Delhi Police arrested two over an online investment scam worth about Rs 80 lakh, while Malwarebytes flagged a new ransomware approach (Prinz Eugen) that silently encrypts actively used business files. Regional Commerce: Kazakhstan and Afghanistan set sights on $3bn trade, with forums in Kabul pushing logistics and certification fixes. Business Climate: Ghana’s central bank urged banks to move beyond lending into advisory and market-access support for growth sectors. Sports-Driven Deals: Giannis Antetokounmpo trade talks keep evolving, with multiple NBA frameworks shaping what teams may offer.

Trade & Investment Partnerships: Dubai Chambers met Ontario’s business and innovation groups in Toronto to deepen trade and investment links, targeting cooperation in AI, innovation and institutional investing. Industrial Policy & Semiconductors: Malaysia’s PM Anwar said the country is entering a high-tech, semiconductor and AI-driven growth phase, with projects like Penang’s Setia Fontaines Industrial Park aimed at jobs and skills. Real Estate Finance: India’s REIT/InvIT market is expanding and “institutionalising” property, with Colliers citing 195m sq ft of listed assets and a 37m sq ft pipeline as of March 2026. Energy & Air Travel: Gulf airlines are back near pre-Iran-conflict levels as airspace reopens, while Indonesia and Kuwait pushed energy-security cooperation and advanced GCC free-trade talks. Inflation Watch: Japan’s core inflation stayed flat in May after the BoJ’s rate hike, as subsidies cushion oil-price shocks. Small Business Cash Flow: Australia’s shift to weekly superannuation from July 1 is set to stress cash flow for small operators, especially those without payroll-ready systems. Consumer & Housing: Queensland’s granny flat demand surged, and Australia’s cafe owners warned rising costs could force closures. Regulatory/Deal Risk: US senators urged the FCC to pause the Paramount-Warner Bros merger over foreign-investor control concerns. Legal/Investor Claims: Rosen Law Firm is pursuing potential securities claims for FLOW cryptocurrency investors.

Energy & Investment (Malaysia–Turkmenistan): Malaysia’s Petronas marked 30 years in Turkmenistan and signed new deals to expand upstream work, including a production sharing agreement for Offshore Blocks 19 and 20 plus a 2D seismic cooperation pact—signals of continued investor confidence tied to political stability. Cuba Economic Overhaul: Cuba’s National Assembly approved 176 reforms to decentralize the economy and open space for private firms, private banking and foreign trade without direct state involvement, as the island seeks growth amid pressure from U.S. sanctions. Middle East Trade Costs (Bahrain): With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, economists expect freight and insurance costs to ease, helping Bahrain and the wider region’s supply chains recover over months. Sanctions & Iran Risk: A potential U.S.-Iran war-ending deal could unlock investment, but may also strengthen the Revolutionary Guards’ business empire—complicating sanctions relief. Markets & Inflation Watch (UK): The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% as energy-price volatility persists; inflation is 2.8% but risks of second-round effects remain. Bolivia Crisis: President Rodrigo Paz declared a state of emergency to clear blockades after 50 days of protests tied to fuel subsidy cuts and shortages, escalating an economic and political standoff. Commodities (Malaysia): Bursa Malaysia outlooks point to volatile gold ahead of U.S. core PCE, while crude palm oil is expected to trade in a broad range as energy and demand signals shift. Business & Policy (Oman): Oman reported a Q1 trade surplus and pushed digital business services via its Oman Business Platform, including merger-related options and faster self-service processes. Local Business Pressure (UK/Europe): Norway plans to ban trade with Israeli settlement goods in occupied territories, a move likely to pass parliament and affect cross-border commerce.

Illicit Trade Crackdown: Philippines officials blamed “endemic” corruption for a P141bn revenue loss from illegal tobacco trade (P118.1bn cigarettes, P22.9bn illegal e-vapor), with enforcement urged to target operators, not small sellers. Cuba’s Economic Overhaul: Cuba’s parliament approved 174 economic reforms in a week, opening more room for private capital and reshaping rules on tourism, foreign investment, agriculture, and foreign trade—though analysts warn results hinge on implementation. Energy & Geopolitics: The Philippines said it has no firm energy deal with Russia yet but is open to expanding petroleum product supplies; separately, a war game warned a Taiwan crisis could strain U.S. allies in South Korea and Europe. Dealmaking & Markets: Malaysia’s TWL Holdings bought a 45% stake in Fairise Odyssey for RM42m; Ajinomoto (Malaysia) shares will pause trading pending a material announcement. M&A in Healthcare: Abarca and LucyRx plan a merger to serve 9m members and manage $15bn in drug spend. Business Climate: Abu Dhabi’s regulator cut fees and fines temporarily to boost ease of doing business. Investor Legal Risk: Securities class actions and investor suits continued, including Embecta and a Malaysia case tied to RM20.5m in capital.

Energy & Trade Links: Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Russia is “very open” to expanding petroleum supplies, though no formal energy deal is yet in place, as he wrapped up an ASEAN-Russia summit in Kazan. Renewables Deal: Zimbabwe’s ZimGreenCo signed a 25-year PPA for a 50MW solar plant near Chegutu, aiming to supply large industrial users and test open-access power market rules. Investment Climate & Regulation: Mozambique’s new mining law requiring a 15% state stake and tighter export rules could deter foreign capital, according to the Chamber of Mines. Tech & AI Push: Japan plans about ¥370tn in AI and strategic-sector investment by FY2040, while Mavenir and Red Hat launched an AI platform letting telecom operators sell AI services via token-based usage. Markets & Risk: Pakistan’s PSX KSE-100 slid after US-Iran talks were postponed, shaking investor confidence. Sanctions: The US Treasury expanded sanctions on Hezbollah-linked Lebanese officials and a business network. Trade Policy: The US launched a Section 301 probe into Germany’s pharma pricing, raising the risk of new tariffs. Regional Business Building: Uzbekistan submitted 120 reform initiatives to speed investment and set up a joint Uzbekistan-Iraq business council; the EIB opened a Central Asia office in Tashkent to back transport, hydropower and digital projects.

Utility Merger Watch: Virginia lawmakers are being urged to extend the review window for the Dominion–NextEra merger from 180 days to a full year, as solar groups warn regulators need more time for complex grid and rate impacts. Sanctions & Investment: US Vice President JD Vance said any foreign investment in Iran would require Washington approval and sanctions relief tied to Iranian behavior, with Gulf states floated as potential financiers only if exemptions are granted. Energy & Inflation: Gas prices in the US are falling after the Iran war truce, but economists warn inflation pain could linger for months as shipping and supply normalize slowly. Trade Facilitation: Pakistan has restored trade visa services at the Taftan border with Iran, aiming to restart stalled cross-border commerce and create jobs in Balochistan. Regulatory/Markets: Canada’s CIRO halted trading in Verses AI Inc. pending news. Corporate Deals: BMG and Concord’s merger cleared regulators in the US and Germany, creating a major independent music group. Small Business & Compliance: SBA launched the “Freedom 250” pledge to recognize small businesses, while Westpac bankers faced APRA grilling over small-business oversight.

India–US Trade Push: Modi and Trump told officials to fast-track a “balanced, commercially meaningful” trade deal after “significant progress,” with USTR Jamieson Greer set to visit next week. Middle East Economic Fallout: Even after a US–Iran truce framework, Iranians say daily hardship and political uncertainty are still worsening prices and stability. UK Rates Watch: The Bank of England is expected to hold at 3.75% as inflation cools but imported costs from the Iran war keep pressure on households and firms. EU–China Trade Narrative: A dispute over EU-China “losing” claims highlights that services trade and broader flows complicate simple goods-only deficit stories. Africa Energy Finance: Zafiri launched with $176m to fund distributed renewables across sub-Saharan Africa, aiming to catalyze millions of new electricity connections. Telecom Investment: GSMA says mobile contributed $240bn to Africa’s economy in 2025 and is shifting operators toward digital transformation, not just connectivity. Banking Deal: Emirates NBD completed a $2.75bn majority-stake acquisition of RBL Bank, marking a major foreign entry into India’s banking sector. Trade & Investment Agreements: CETA between India and the UK is set to take effect July 15, alongside a social security pact for professionals.

Trade & Finance Infrastructure: Agrobank says it’s targeting trade facilitation and payment links between Malaysia and Uzbekistan/CIS by year-end, aiming to boost agricultural and commodity flows. Banking & SME Access: OCBC Malaysia will let Singapore citizens and PRs use Singpass for remote business-account authentication, cutting onboarding to as fast as five working days. Inflation Watch (South Africa): Consumer inflation rose to 4.5% in May, driven mainly by higher fuel prices, while food inflation kept easing. Rates & Macro (US): The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% and lifted inflation expectations, citing elevated uncertainty tied to the Middle East. Capital Markets (GCC): Fitch says GCC investment-grade spreads have largely normalized after the US-Iran deal, though high-yield sukuk spreads remain wider. Corporate Moves: Yum Brands agreed to sell Pizza Hut for $2.7bn in a split deal, while PayPal is exploring strategic options for PayPal Ventures. Policy & Reform (Cuba): Cuba’s Communist Party convened an unscheduled session as Díaz-Canel pushes economic reforms. Regional Deals (India-UK): India-UK’s CETA and social security agreement are set to take effect July 15.

US-Iran Deal & Inflation: Oil prices slid toward a fresh three-month low as markets bet Hormuz reopening will loosen supply, easing inflation pressure even as uncertainty remains. UK Inflation Watch: Britain’s annual inflation held at 2.8% in May; higher petrol and airfares were offset by softer food costs, keeping the Bank of England’s rate path in focus. EU Trade Support: The EU is preparing emergency tariff cuts to shield Armenia from Russian import restrictions, aiming to protect a pro-Western government and stabilize regional trade. US Trade Controls: A backlog in publishing new Entity List names is leaving some Chinese firms off the blacklist despite internal approvals, turning export controls into a negotiating lever. Middle East Investment: A $300bn private fund under the US-Iran framework is taking shape, with more than half reportedly already committed for energy, logistics and manufacturing. Asia Trade & Payments: India and Sri Lanka discussed rupee-to-rupee settlement to cut transaction costs and reduce dollar volatility. Kenya Business Pressure: Over 1,000 CEOs urged Kenya to lower the cost of doing business, improve credit access and speed up government payments amid tight liquidity and inflation worries. Tech & Finance: Alaan launched a UAE AI-native business bank account combining cards, payments, invoice automation and accounting. Central Asia Investment: Qatar is participating in Uzbekistan’s Tashkent International Investment Forum, highlighting energy, trade corridors and logistics opportunities.

US-Iran Peace & Energy Markets: President Marcos welcomed the US-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying it could normalize global economies and ease petroleum-driven price pressure. Central Banking: The Bank of Japan lifted its key rate to a 31-year high of 1.0%, warning that crude oil and a weak yen could push inflation above target. Transatlantic Trade: The European Parliament gave final approval to the EU-US trade agreement, with tariffs on most industrial and agricultural goods set to be eliminated and US duties capped at 15%, pending ratification by EU member states. Inflation Watch (Philippines): Cordillera inflation eased to 6.8% in May from 7.6% in April as diesel and gas price inflation cooled after fuel price caps. Business & Investment: India’s Bharat Innovates 2026 Day Two drew 50+ global investors and 80+ DeepTech pitches, with follow-up commitments and funding totaling about $254.5m so far. SME Finance Risk: A UK-focused report flags a shift toward cash-flow-only borrowing by small businesses, warning it can become a survival trap. Telecom M&A: Ritter Communications is merging with Great Plains Communications to form Rightfiber, building a 28,000-mile fiber network across 20 states. Native Entrepreneurship: Potawatomi Ventures launched the Bwadwét Innovation Community, a 15-week accelerator for Native founders combining business training with Indigenous knowledge.

Monetary Policy Shock: The Bank of Japan lifted rates to a 31-year high of 1.0% as crude-linked inflation risks and a weak yen feed into prices, with policymakers split on the move. China Growth Watch: China’s industrial output accelerated in May, but retail sales fell and fixed-asset investment dropped 4.1% in the first five months, keeping pressure on demand. Trade and Inflation Signals: Euro area goods trade swung from a surplus to a €1bn deficit in April as energy imports rose faster than exports, while inflation remains a live issue for central banks. US-Iran Deal and Markets: A US-Iran peace step is boosting investor sentiment and easing energy costs, but frozen-asset releases are tied to conditions around reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Corporate & Legal: A US judge dismissed xAI’s trade-secret lawsuit against OpenAI, dealing another blow to Musk’s legal fight. Dealmaking & Capital Flows: Abu Dhabi launched a $15bn PPP pipeline to broaden funding sources and shift project risk to private capital. Startup Funding: India’s SolarSquare raised $53m to expand rooftop solar and storage offerings. Small-Business Reality Check: Youi told a parliamentary inquiry that broker commission models can block service for small firms, pushing insurers toward direct distribution.

Trade & Tariffs: Canada’s envoy says sectoral U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos—not CUSMA—are the “focus” of talks, with negotiators racing to find a path forward on Section 232 duties. Inflation & Energy: Gasoline prices jumped as inflation hit a 3-year high, while ECB officials warned any Strait of Hormuz reopening won’t quickly cool euro-zone inflation. Middle East Deal: A U.S.-Iran framework aims to end the war and reopen Hormuz within weeks, but markets and policymakers are treating it as a start, not a fix. UK Construction Skills: The FMB rejected a proposed CITB-ECITB merger, warning it could dilute small builders’ voice unless governance and levy accountability are redesigned. AI & Courts: A U.S. judge dismissed xAI’s trade-secret lawsuit against OpenAI, marking Musk’s second loss in weeks. M&A/Business Transfers: Cross-border M&A brokers gathered in Luxembourg to push stronger international deal networks. Investment & Policy: Bangladesh business groups urged post-budget reforms to boost investor confidence, while Fiji’s immigration ministry said it’s now tasked with scrutinizing investors—raising capacity and policy-gap concerns. Africa Business: Dangote outlined plans for a power-backed free trade zone in Ondo, and Nigeria’s inflation climbed to 15.93% in May. Local Economy: Halifax retailers warn rising theft and loitering on Spring Garden Road could threaten the area’s long-term viability.

Energy & Markets: A US-Iran peace framework and talk of reopening the Strait of Hormuz sent oil down and stocks up, with Brent sliding toward a three-month low and Asia-Pacific currencies rallying as inflation fears ease. Inflation Watch: India’s wholesale inflation jumped to 9.68% in May, driven by fuel and power costs and spillovers into food and manufactured goods, sharpening pressure on policymakers. Cost of Crisis: The Iran-linked fuel shock is estimated to have cost UK drivers about £4bn via higher petrol and diesel prices. Policy & Investment: Malaysia’s economy ministry says inflation should stay in a 1.5–2.5% range in 2026 and flagged a parliamentary statement on energy and supply-chain disruptions; it also reported RM92.8bn in foreign direct investment in Q1, led by Japan. Trade & Logistics: Egypt and DP World discussed expanding logistics centers to turn Egypt into a regional trade hub for Africa. Business & Security: Delhi cyber police busted an online investment fraud ring tied to about Rs 1.56 crore, arresting two suspects. Environment & Trade Capacity: Seychelles ran training to boost capacity to identify and manage hazardous chemicals in trade. Geopolitical Risk: A report warns the occupied West Bank economy is being dismantled by restrictions, with unemployment around 30%.