Dutch Central Bank Slashes 2026 Growth Forecast on Energy Crisis
According to De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), the Dutch economy is now projected to expand by just 0.8% in 2026 — a significant step down from its earlier estimate of 1.2% growth.
"Due to higher energy prices, consumers are tightening their belts. Companies face higher production costs and produce less," said Bas ter Weel, director of monetary affairs at DNB.
Ter Weel acknowledged that government expenditure is continuing to provide some buffer to economic activity, but sounded the alarm over the fiscal implications of a prolonged slowdown, cautioning that weakening output would erode tax receipts and heap pressure onto public budgets.
"You cannot spend what you do not have," he said, adding that future spending decisions would need to remain balanced within existing budget limits.
DNB simultaneously lifted its inflation projection for the current year to 2.7%, up from a prior estimate of 2.4%, as energy-driven price pressures continue to broaden across the economy.
The bank flagged persistent uncertainty surrounding global energy markets as a key drag on the economic outlook, warning that volatility in this sector continues to cloud forecasts across the board.
Alongside its baseline projections, DNB outlined a range of alternative scenarios — including a sharper deterioration should hostilities around critical energy supply routes intensify, alongside a more optimistic path under which growth could gradually recover over the coming years.
The central bank also flagged a modest uptick in unemployment as another likely consequence of the softening economic environment.
The downward revision arrives against a backdrop of widening anxiety over the health of the European economy. On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its eurozone growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9%, pulling back from an earlier projection of 1.1%.
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